New estimates serious and realistic
New estimates serious and
Quotes are found everywhere, but they are all criticized for the same thing: they are too high! All connoisseurs will tell you and talk about it often. So much so that almost all sellers make their own prices!
Quotes that are found everywhere are for the professional market. And on the collectors market, what are the prices? ( I specify here that i do not sell any coins, so I have absolutely no interest in decreasing or increasing a quote!)
In recent days, I begin or punctuate my articles of "why?", Here again I start again: yes, why make estimates here will you tell me? There are books, magazines and even sites that all offer the same quotes or almost. So why? For several important points that i detail for you here.
- Understand the flaws of current quotes.
- The pedigree.
- Reality of the market.
- Correctly evaluate his coins.
- Problems of valuation of royal and ancient coins.
- The slabs.
- Illustrations of my words and examples of normal prices among professionals.
- My new estimates.
Understand the flaws of current quotes
Without quoting them here, you immediately see what wbooks and sites of known quotations I will speak here. When I walk on small or big flea markets, I discuss with collectors of all levels, street vendors and even the big sales houses as some will quote below ... All, absolutely all, complain about the quotations too high. Too high? Yes, I totally agree, only you have to be very attentive and honest to understand these quotes. It is not a question here of denouncing anything, but of explaining it and understanding it.
If many people think, wrongly, that these quotes are made only to make a bigger profit because these works giving ratings are created by professionals, it should be made a point with some specific examples:
Put yourself in the shoes of an American or a Japanese wishing to buy a French coin. How will he do it? Already, this person probably has more money than the average and will probably go to a sales house. And there! Think again, the auction house is not going to set a price similar to its rating, it will simply set a low price: example a listed coin 500 € will be set to 300 € or 200 € starting price. And it is precisely here that the problem begins: two wealthy customers or more will fight in auction for a coin! Why exactly this one? The patina, or simply the desire to complete this vintage in his collection without effort, without looking elsewhere and especially, the pleasure of showing the purchase price to their friends! Each of these points will make that a coin will sometimes go to 1000 € or more whereas it is worth only 500 € or even 200 €. This is a small example because on older coins we can sometimes reach peaks. It is therefore this real fact which alone increases the quotations. not to mention that afterwards, some sellers on the internet or elsewhere will settle on these quotes and make the same prices.
Therefore, then put yourself in the place of peoples doing quotations, which obviously take all into account and which, by averaging, get these quotations and edit then.
Another flagrant example: in France, in Normandy, the Gaulish coins of the Aulerques Eburovices are at a certain price, while in the south of France we find these same coins two or three times more expensive! It is normal, the Aulerques Eburovices are a Gallic people based in the region of Normandy. It's the same for all coins, they will be more expensive if they are far from their region of origin.
These points being cleared, you understand now these prices sometimes considered "delusional" by the collectors. And to be complete, many coins became stock market investments, adding value.
Here is a particular point that adds value to a coin acquired from a sales house: the pedigree. When buying a coin at a auction house, remember that there is identification work, the coin is authenticated, carefully graded, indexed and photographed. For some coins there are even traces found in old sales. All this affects the final price of a coin.
What is most interesting is the care given to the coins among others. Let me explain: imagine a coin over 50 years old with its original brilliance. Would you like your seller to touch it with his hands? Of course not, because otherwise your original shine will turn at best into a patina not very homogeneous and at worst you will have fingerprints ... So you can guarantee to have a coin intact, manipulated with gloves, not cleaned. Because yes! The probability that another less serious seller has not correctly taken care of the coin is to be taken into account!
But beyond all this, the most interesting point is the pedigree. Why? Because you have a record of the sale, the provenance and in case of problems, you can justify the origin of the coin. This can be very important in some countries. If you are reading this and living in America you have probably heard of this problem. And it may be that it spreads to other countries and you are asked to justify the provenance of your collectible coins. And even beyond this, you can add value to some coins from important and known collections, an example in France: the "Pierre" collection.
I think that with these two chapters, you have understood these high ratings and why elsewhere you will have these same coins two to three times cheaper. There, where, I do not agree and that I agree with the general opinion, it is on the prices of the coins very common and worn that is very strong. But these coins are not meant to interest the collectors of the country of origin of these coins, but foreign collectors, in whom these coins are obviously very difficult to find. But that, in my opinion, does not justify to mount the ratings accordingly because if these foreign collectors went to search on the internet they would find these coins at much lower prices. Even if some prefer to invest more money for prestige!
Reality of the market
As I have said, too, I find the quotations exaggerated, for the low states of conservation for common coins. Have you ever visited a flea market and saw that your neighbor sells alone about ten coins of CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 50 Centimes bronze aluminum (French coin) to 1 € the unit? And that these coins are, like many others, per kilo! They are all in XF 40 and sold 1 € per unit or even less. THEN WHY ARE THEy QUOTES 3 OR EVEN 5 EURO?! It is here that one enters a certain delirium! You are not going to tell me that two rich people have invested in these coins and worn coins? No, its impossible! But, odds operate according to a mathematical logic, we will not drop the price of a currency from 50€ to 1€ from one state of conservation to another.
Correctly evaluate his coins
Another problem that distorts your estimates and your understanding of ratings: The assessment of the state of your coin or that of the seller. Too often, even "professional" sellers overestimate the state of preservation: a XF 40 coin becomes AU 58 and sometimes even MS 63. Really MS 63 coins are classified in MS 65 almost every time. And for non-professional sellers, we always find the same things: coins strongly cleaned so-called "uncirculated (MS 65)"...
You have no knowledge of conservation status? B for good, TB for very good, TTB for very very good, SUP for superb, SPL for splendid and FDC for corner flower in France.
Summary table of the states of conservation in the main countries.
|2||B||SGE||VG||BC||B||VG / G6|
|3||TB||S+||F||BC +||MB||F / F15|
|4||TTB||SS||VF||MBC||BB||VF / XF40|
|5||SUP||VZ||XF||EBC||BB / SPL||XF / AU58|
|7||FDC||STGL||MS||FDC / SC||FDC||MS 65|
For the USA there are still other names but much less common, example: F for B ... The USA also use the same names as England. The following is a description of each state of conservation, for example with the Americans states of conservation.
- 1 AG : Coin completely worn and barely identifiable.
- 2 F : Very worn coin with some remains of letters and drawing.
- 3 VF: Almost all letters and drawings are visible but rather heavily worn.
- 4 XF 40: Well preserved coin but a little light wear and some strokes or scratches.
- 5 AU 58: All the details are there, some very light strokes or scratches and mainly on the edge or the field.
- 6 MS 63: No wear, almost all-round striking brilliance, tiny traces of circulations visible under a magnifying glass.
- 7 MS 65: Coin in its original state, uncirculated. No visible defects even with the magnifying glass.
Precision: each state is punctuated by grades from (french states for this example) B. B 10, TB 25, TTB 45, SUP 58, SPL 63, FDC 65. Hence the USA: MS 63 corresponding to the SPL 63 in France. These grades are accurate and made by expert professionals. However, among professionals from everywhere, they use the terms, B + or TB + instead of grading and writing TB 30 which is therefore between TB and TTB. Likewise for TTB +, SUP + etc. The grades are quite subjective from one serious grading company to another. The same coin can be an SUP 58 or an SUP 60 for example. Anyway, this coin is undoubtedly SUP! And that's what interests you if you are not a specialist. These gradation figures become important in high states of conservation or in the case of rares coins, where we look for the best-preserved coin.
However, we must note the defects for the MS 65 which are considered as original, example: "the airlines", "bag shock". Dies who strike coins are sometimes "cleaned up", causing streaks or other traces that make the minted coin contain traces that are therefore original. The original state refers to the state of the coin when it is struck. An experienced numismatist and connoisseur will differentiate these traces, from traces of circulation. You will have noticed that the MS 65 are graduated from 65 to 70. Illogical? Why grader "perfect" coins? Simply to grapple the perfection of the striking, a coin MS 70 is struck with perfect dies.
The conservation states above are simple summaries. Indeed, each series will have its own wear criteria (which meet all the criteria that I have already mentioned). These wear criteria are there to describe us the "high points", that is to say the parts of the coin most exposed to wear because of their prominent position on the coin. Obviously, a laurel wreath is the most prominent it will be worn before the rest of the portrait. Sometimes it's the ribbons that are used first, ... These criteria serve as shortcuts to evaluate the coin.
Now that you know exactly these criteria, stop buying a MS 65 that is really a AU 58 or MS 63! Do not be surprised then if another serious professional wants you to buy your coin at a much lower price. Be meticulous, a cleaned coin is worthless! Cleaning removes some of the metal. One exception: extremely rare coins, even cleaned are sold, we tolerate the cleaning because these coins are rare objects. However, these coins will never be given a grade above VF because of this cleansing. To recap, be vigilant, a coin is like a car. A car with stripes is not unused! So do the same with your coins.
For estimations on this site, I opted for a description B 10, TB 25, TTB 45 (or USA states if you choose english language)... No description of the wear points for now. I have given you the keys here to evaluate your coin simply without going into details that will exceed you and will not affect the price of your coin.
Problems of valuation of royal and ancient coins
This chapter will be short, but I wanted to emphasize it. What do we see often with ancient coins? MS 65 coming out of nowhere. MS 63 that are XF 40 ... The antique coins are struck with hand-engraved dies and with rudimentary techniques, we often justify wear by this fake phrase "it's original" or worse, the excuse of the "die blocked". A blocked die differs from the wear because it misses a detail but nothing around is worn or the place or missing an item is "clear". It is quite complicated to give you a particular technique but by the usual one we easily differentiate the two.
What influences many people is the general state of the coins. Ancient coins are often very worn. Because of this, when you are in front of a little worn coin it is still used superlatives and therefore the MS 63 or MS 65 rank. It's wrong. Wear is a wear and following the same evaluation techniques as for modern coins is totally justified. If 99% of the antique coins of a certain type for a certain emperor, without giving a precise example, is always very used and that, one shows you a coin of this type in very good state, like XF 40 or AU 58, this coin is AU 58 or XF 40, nothing else. We will simply note that it is rare in this state.
And for the royal coins? It's the same! Little bronzes coins are graded AU 58 or MS 63 when they are well preserved. Nearly perfect ancient coins exist, therefore a worn coin is worn! Striking techniques are not necessarily an excuse. But should we, as for modern coins, look at the quality of striking or simply the preservation of the coin, regardless of the quality of striking. This is subjective.
Finally, for antique, royal and even modern coins, decentering does not affect the state of conservation.
This little chapter is here to present you a new element, even if it exist since several years. At the moment, slabs are definitely democratized. But first, what are these "slabs"? They are rigid plastic protections, allowing optimal protection of your coins as well as an elegant presentation. Coins are protected from UV, moisture or anything that may alter its condition, including its original color and velvet of strike. At the beginning, most collectors wondered about the place taken by these boxes in the case of large collections, aesthetics... But today, everyone appreciates them. also allow to put tab, they also include barcodes. This last point makes it possible to trace the coin and thus it has a pedigree.
Let's go back to the original subject: as I explained the quotations of the books represent the professional market. And so, it includes the work around the identification, the estimate of the grade of conservation, the precaution and the care brought to the coins. Something that is almost never found in the amateur market, because coins are touched by hand, stored in folders exposed to light, moisture, solvents of plastic around the coins. But, with the slabs, it changes everything! Since the coins are already perfectly protected. If you buy to collector a MS 65 coin in slabs, it will remain in this state. And this is where you can look for beautiful coins at prices lower than those on the professional market, while ensuring you have a coin that will not change appearance.
Illustrations of my words and examples of normal prices among professionals
Let's see some examples of serious prices. Here at Montay Numismatique who always accustoms us to pleasant prices. I want to point out here that I do not in any way make publicity for Montay numismatics in this article, I took Montay numismatique as an example as I could have taken another. Link to their website: https://www.montay-numismatique.fr/. The collection market is particular, each has its own vision of the difficulty of finding certain coins, and makes its price accordingly. Quotations are therefore averages of realized prices. If many people buy coins, very expensive ... What is the conclusion? Quite simply, no conclusion on the numismatic knowledge of the buyers, but simply that they put much money on a coin. The professional who sells a coin, makes its price, according to the demand ... It is therefore stupid to criticize prices considered too strong ... even if sometimes there are abuses. If someone offers you 50 € to buy your tomato, will you then sell it to another at the usual price? Yes or no, you are free to think that maybe everyone is looking for tomatoes and their price goes up a lot ... Here are some screenshots of sales at this auction house:
1 Franc 1901 in SPL (MS 63) condition, sold at 150 €. In your opinion, what is its rating in this state on the main books, sites or reference magazines? 150 €? € 200? No! Between 250 € and 300 €! so why only € 150? Montay Numismatic knows the rating and yet sells 100 € to 150 € cheaper. Because he knows the reality of the global market.
Another example: the coins of 1 franc from 1915 to 1920 are very easily to find, per kilogram in almost perfect states, in SPL (MS 63). Because these coins have almost no or little circulated. Here are the SPL quotations for these coins:
- 1915: 10 €
- 1916: 10 €
- 1917: 10 €
- 1918: 12 €
- 1919: 14 €
- 1920: 22 €
This is an average because you can reach for 1920, 25 € or even 30 €! Only a stranger will put so much for these coins. And again, he will make no effort because going for example on ebay he will find these coins at prices sometimes 10 times lower! 1 €, 1,20 € ... By cons for 1 € you will have this problem almost for sure: coin taken in hand, unprotected etc ... Which means later: brilliant original that disappears, traces of fingers. A silver coin does not oxidize, but do you think that if your coin shows fingerprints, you will be able to pass under water and soap and then wipe a cloth without altering the velvet striking? No!
Do you want more? let's look at prices at Montay Numismatic:
Oh, 1 franc 1920 in MS 63 at 6 €! 1 franc 1916 in MS 65 to € 3.50 while the MS 63 is listed: € 10! You see now? A last example: a blistered coin so FDC unmistakable, listed over 40 €. Sold 15 € at Montay Numismatic.
I have voluntarily selected 1 franc for these examples, in order to show you the number of coins sold below the ratings only for a SILVER series and a NICKEL SEED series.
By realistic prices, I want to express this: prices representing the difficulty to find these coins, added to the money invested on average by serious and experienced collectors. Know that many amateur collectors will sell their coins at the same price than quotations on books and even above! This affects the average of quotations too. The examples above are there, only to show you what to look for to save money. Like when you go to the super market.
My new estimates
How do I proceed to estimate the coins here on this site? It's simple, You will not find a 1 Franc 1920 listed at 10 € or 20 € here. I illustrate the coins collectors market. By studying the average price, made on trade shows, flea markets, sites, sales on offer, ebay, etc ... By releasing sales that are out of the average, as I explained at the beginning of the article, the sales including coins sold 3 or 5 times their real price because the patina or I know not what other criterion came to change the normality. When two or more, rich clients are fighting over a coin or because a person has "invested" on a coin
But I am also studying the rarity of conservation states. Some coins with metals that loose their shine very fast, are sensitive to UV rays etc ... are extremely rarely in MS 65 condition! For some, at present, we give fictitious prices without specifying to you that one does not know currently money sold or existing in this state.
Finally, I carefully analyze the conservation status of the coins sold or offered for sale. So a false MS 63, actually AU 58 does not come to affect the rating of MS 63 coins. It is obvious but I specify it. And I will be very serious for the MS 65 state. If I notice that a coin exists in FDC 70 you can be sure that this coin comes from new dies and has absolutely no defect.
My estimates are averages, as I have already said. This means that you will find these coins for sale around these prices. A coin listed 200 € can be between 180 € and 210 € for example. But more often 200 €.
Conclusion, with these estimates, you will be informed of the prices you can buy or sell. Selling coins at the same price as the dimensions of the books is very difficult. Most collectors are looking on ebay or whatever. And so if you sell beyond realistic market prices, you probably will not sell your coins. Because you are not a professional and people will think that you are not going to take care of the coin you sell, touch it with your hands ... for example. Sell a fake too. Because now, many fakes are very difficult to recognize for amateurs. That's why professionals are guarantees of quality and authenticity. Which adds more value to the coins sold. You buy the coin and the work done on it